FIFA World Cup Best Bets for Australia vs Tunisia

Last updated: Nov 25, 2022, 10:36AM | Published: Nov 24, 2022, 11:05PM

Australia continues its World Cup 2022 campaign with a must-win match against Tunisia, after going down 4-1 to France on Wednesday morning.

Using the powerful predictive analytics model here at Stats Insider, we have found the best bets to make on the Socceroos second game, including a lay bet to take on Betfair.

World Cup Best Bets for Socceroos vs Tunisia

After exciting the nation with an early goal before going down 4-1 to France, the Socceroos are projected as a 28.9% chance of getting the three points against Tunisia.

Our model rates Tunisia as a 43.8% chance, whilst the draw has a 27.2% chance of occurring.

Australia played a deep defensive line against the reigning World Cup champions on Wednesday morning and are now expected to play a more attacking game in what is likely its best chance at securing a win.

With that in mind, let's get into our best bets for the match, including a positive result for Australia and a goal scorer presenting nice value as well.

MORE: World Cup 2022 simulator

Back: Socceroos to win

As outlined in our preview video down below, the Stats Insider model has detected a nice 4% edge on Australia to defeat Tunisia, with our fair odds at $3.44.

With all eyes around the country firmly fixated on this Saturday 9pm kick-off, we're taking the Socceroos to get their first World Cup win since defeating Serbia in 2010.

Australia showed its attacking ability with a very nice goal in the 9th minute against France, before setting up to defend at what many, including Socceroos legend Harry Kewell, believed to be too early in the game.

“I just think if we had got them on the back foot, got the back line of France turning, we could have just caused them a little bit more trouble,” Kewell said on SBS.

With pressure coming from all directions, watch for Australia to approach this game in a more attacking style, with a win more likely than the current odds suggest.

Back: Australia to defeat Tunisia ($3.98 at Betfair)

We've used our powerful predictive analytics model to find the best #FIFAWorldCup bets for Australia vs Tunisia on Saturday night.

Check out the latest episode of The Edge, presented by @Betfair_Aus: pic.twitter.com/w70oLPl5QT
— Stats Insider (@StatsInsider) November 25, 2022

Back: Mitchell Duke to score

With many expecting the Socceroos to take this game on and once again show-off the attacking ability that got them the early lead against France, our model projects striker Mitchell Duke as the most likely Aussie to score.

Duke scored five times throughout the World Cup qualification process and again against New Zealand in Australia's most recent friendly before Qatar.

Our projections have Duke as a 26% chance of scoring any time, giving punters a 7.8% edge on the current available odds of $5.50.

Back: Mitchell Duke to score a goal ($5.50 at Betfair)

Lay: Youssef Msakni to score

Although at the time of writing, the lay option is not available for this bet on the Betfair Exchange, our model suggests that you should be keeping an eye on it as we approach kick-off.

Our projections have Msakni as a 19.5% chance of scoring a goal against Australia, whilst the current available 'back' odds of $3.95 equate to a probability of 25.3%.

Msakni failed to score in Tunisia's entire World Cup 2022 qualification campaign and looks a good option to lay in this match if you trust the model.

Lay: Youssef Msakni to score

MORE: Australia vs Tunisia World Cup prediction

Where to bet on World Cup?

If you're looking to bet on FIFA World Cup 2022 using the information above, the best place to do is with Betfair, where you can both back and lay every market across the board throughout the tournament.

All dates and times in this article are Australian Eastern Daylight Time (AEDT) unless otherwise noted.

More About World Cup 2022

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Want to use this free information and start betting on the World Cup 2022? Betfair has the best range of markets for the World Cup 2022.

Ryan Leaver

Ryan Leaver is a respected journalist and lifelong sports fan who is widely regarded as one of Australia's most trusted sources for accurate and up-to-date information across various sports. He holds a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism (Sport) from La Trobe University, which strengthens his credibility in the field. Ryan, who previously worked at Triple M, where he provided comprehensive coverage of the AFL and cricket, is renowned for his extensive knowledge and ability to deliver the latest insights.