World Cup Forensics: France vs Croatia

Croatia has made their first ever World Cup Final and will take on a classy French side looking to make amends for the EURO 2016 defeat and attempt to become Champions for the first time since their 1998 glory.

A buoyant Croatian outfit has spared nothing on their way to the Final, with three exhausting knockout encounters against Denmark, Russia and England going all the way to extra time, with penalty wins against the Danish and Russians.

France has barely had to get out of second gear so far, and apart from their destruction of Argentina they've not clicked the way they would have liked. A more defensive brand of football that wasn't aesthetically pleasing got the job done against Belgium, despite the criticism of negative football from the Belgian players and media.

France comes into the clash winning 51% of simulations according to Stats Insider's Models, with Croatia winning just 19% of the time with a Draw/Extra Time coming in at 30% of simulations.

On paper France is a superior side and should get the job done, but the Croatians have shown an impressive resiliency and won't be easy to put away. That being said, that resilience can be split two ways - yes they've fought to be here, but it's also taken a serious physical toll and needed penalties to get past Denmark and Russia.

Under 2.5 Goals has a 4% edge, but paying a mere $1.40 doesn't exactly scream value. All 3 of Croatia's previous 3 encounters have gone Under inside 90 minutes and it wouldn't be a surprise to see that happen again.

If you think one of these teams can win this to nil but aren't sure which way it'll go, Both Teams To Score - No might be in play. At $1.55 it's a lot less risk than France to nil at $2.60, but the latter is a play that stands out to me because of the French's defensive quality.

Hugo Lloris, Raphael Varane and Samuel Umtiti have had outstanding tournaments, and have built the bedrock upon which France has launched their campaign.

Mario Mandžukić, Ivan Perišić and Ante Rebić will have their work cut out for them, they'll need to keep the French defence busy and Perišić and Rebić will need to force Benjamin Pavard and Theo Hernández to work hard defensively, whilst Mandžukić will have a tough task of keeping Varane and Umtiti occupied.

This will allow a thrilling midfield battle to play out between Paul Pogba and N'Golo Kante vs Luka Modrić and Ivan Rakitić, where the class and steel of the Frenchmen go head to head with the magic and verve of the Croatians. Who wins that battle and controls midfield will go a long way to deciding who wins the game.

Olivier Giroud has had a poor tournament but he'll need to win his battle with Dejan Lovren and Domagoj Vida to open things up for Kylian Mbappé to thrive. Mbappé's a serious contender for the Golden Ball award (Best Player) and he is nineteen years old. That's equal parts frightening and amazing.

Though France defended deeply against Belgium, that does not necessarily mean they will do that here against Croatia. The Croatians will attack them, which they may absorb and counter at pace.

If either side scores an early goal we could see a nice open contest, but form says this may be more of a scrappy, tactical affair with two talented defences holding firm.

The French are rightly the favourites, and they will likely win this Final. But Croatia are not a side to be underestimated and will push them all the way. France 2-1.

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