This image is a derivative of Sydney International Tennis ATP 250, by Rob Keating (CC BY-SA 2.0)

The Australian summer of tennis has arrived, satiating the hungriest of tennis hearts.

Already, the first weeks of the 2020 season have had a familiar feel with Serena Williams collecting her 73^rd WTA title in Auckland, while Novak Djokovic piloted Serbia to the inaugural ATP Cup crown.

The old has, however, blended with the new, with Russia’s Ekaterina Alexandrova winning her maiden title in Shenzhen, while countryman Andrey Rublev has continued his rise to tour prominence claiming the Doha Open without dropping a set all tournament.

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While men’s tennis at the very highest level remains in the exclusive domain of the ‘Big Three’ with Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Djokovic sharing an outrageous 52 of the last 59 major titles, their domination is even more pronounced in Melbourne, with a solitary Stanislas Wawrinka triumph in 2014 getting in the way of their Grand Slam rampage. We, in fact, have to go all the way back to 2005 and Marat Safin to find someone else brave enough to break their Australian Open stranglehold.

Hope, however, does spring eternal, with Rod Laver Arena once again offering the chance for someone new to break through and disrupt their three-man fiesta, so today we’ve identified five players with an outside chance of making that a possibility.

EDITORS NOTE: Alex de Minaur withdrew from the 2020 Australian Open on January 16, 2020, so we have included an extra outsider in this list.

DANIIL MEDVEDEV

STATS INSIDER HARD COURT RANK: #4

AVG MARKET AUSTRALIAN OPEN WIN ODDS: $9 (8/1 or +800)

If anybody is ever going to break up the ‘Big Three’ hegemony, Daniil Medvedev might be at the front of the queue.

What the 23-year old Russian did over the second half of last season was truly incredible, establishing himself as a legitimate force on tour and one who arrives in Melbourne with huge ambitions.

Medvedev parlayed a phenomenal 2019 North American hard-court season, making the finals in all of Montreal, Washington and Cincinnati, into an incredible run at the 2019 US Open, where he made the final and took Rafa Nadal to five sets.

In the ensuing months, Medvedev gobbled up titles in St Petersburg as well as the Shanghai Masters, and by the time the music stopped on the ATP season, Medvedev was ranked #4 in the world, with no less than eight top-ten scalps.

Crucially, Medvedev has now received a favourable draw in Melbourne and a reasonable path to advance to the semis.

Whether he’s yet capable of getting the better of any of these tennis legends on the biggest stage remains a big question, but the fact we’re asking it speaks to this young man’s talents.

KEY STAT: 44.8%

For all his success, Medvedev is certainly not an aggressive player, with his game more about wearing his opponents down. Last season, just 44.8% of Medvedev’s groundstrokes were forehands, which was the second-lowest rate on tour.

DENIS SHAPOVALOV

STATS INSIDER HARD COURT RANK: #11

AVG MARKET AUSTRALIAN OPEN WIN ODDS: $41 (40/1 or +4000)

2019 was an incredible year for Canadian tennis with Bianca Andreescu winning the US Open, Felix Auger-Aliassime having an astonishing break-out season, while Denis Shapovalov continued his meteoric rise, driving the Canadian team all the way to Davis Cup Final last November.

Shapovalov indeed finished the year ranked #14 in the world by the ATP, thanks to a busy schedule which, though only resulting in the one title (October’s Stockholm Open), saw him contest five semi-finals throughout the season.

And, while he didn’t quite make his mark at the majors, the Tel Aviv-born southpaw was exceptional at Masters level, where he went 14-9 over the year, and which culminated in a run to the Final at the Paris Masters, where he fell to a rampant Novak Djokovic.

Melbourne presents another opportunity for Shapovalov to make his mark on the game, and to potentially make a Grand Slam breakout. To this point, the 20-year old owns a pedestrian 12-10 record at Major level and is yet to progress beyond the third round.

KEY STAT: ACE PREVENTION

In the era of the big serve, Shapovalov’s game functions as a defensive forcefield, allowing aces to be fired against him on just 4.9% of opponent serves in 2019. This was the third-best figure in the game, and bettered only by Serbia’s emerging Laslo Dere and veteran Frenchmen, Gael Monfils. 

ANDREY RUBLEV

STATS INSIDER HARD COURT RANK: #15

AVG MARKET AUSTRALIAN OPEN WIN ODDS: $51 (50/1 or +5000)

Andrey Rublev’s 2020 began away from the intensity and spotlight of Australia, claiming the Qatar Open, a third title for the gifted Russian.

This year looms as a significant one for the incredibly talented 22-year old, having finished 2019 strongly by winning the Kremlin Cup in October, before single-handedly propelling Russia’s Semi-Final run at the Davis Cupwhere he went 4-0, without dropping a single set.

If Rublev does have designs on breaking into to the ATP's top ten in 2020, a breakthrough at Grand Slam level is a must, with Rublev boasting just a 12-10 record and just a single Quarterfinal appearance (2017 US Open) to show from his nine entries.

KEY STAT: 6.7

Like fellow rising star Shapolvalov, Rublev’s game is grounded in defense, with the Russian making sure opponents have to work extremely hard when on serve. Rublev’s opponents in 2019 required an ATP-high 6.7 points per service game last season which speaks to the Russian’s tenacity when on the other side of the net. For context’s sake, Australia’s Nick Kyrgios had the worst number on tour in this metric at 5.9.

ALEX DE MINAUR

STATS INSIDER HARD COURT RANK: #14

AVG MARKET AUSTRALIAN OPEN WIN ODDS: $67 (66/1 or +6600)

Along with Canada’s Felix Auger-Aliassime and Denis Shapovalov, Australia’s own Alex De Minaur is one of just three men on tour presently occupying a place in the top 25, despite having not yet turned 21 years of age.

For De Minaur, 2019 was an indisputable breakout year, winning three titles (Sydney, Atlanta and Zhuhai) while also qualifying for the Final of the Swiss Indoor Championships where he ultimately fell to a certain Roger Federer.

Like Rublev, De Minaur has made great strides at a young age, producing an undefeated run while driving Australia to the Quarterfinals of last year’s Davis Cup. However, like Rublev, De Minaur is yet to make his presence felt at Grand Slam level, yet to graduate past a Round of 16, with his overall 12-11 record containing significant room for improvement.

KEY STAT: 0-8

While DeMinaur’s rise up the rankings has been swift, his record against the game’s elite leaves a lot to be desired, having failed to record a win in all eight of his opportunities. Much-maligned countryman, Nick Kyrgios, has an 11-16 record against similarly ranked opponents.

EDITORS NOTE: Alex de Minaur withdrew from the 2020 Australian Open on January 16, 2020.

ROBERTO BAUTISTA AGUT

STATS INSIDER HARD COURT RANK: #19 

AVG MARKET AUSTRALIAN OPEN WIN ODDS: $67 (66/1 or +6600)

In recent years, Spain's Roberto Bautista Agut has been a consistent force on tour, occupying a top-20 position for the best part of the last five years.

2019, however, was his masterpiece, finishing the year ranked #9 by the ATP, having played an instrumental role in Spain’s Davis Cup triumph, while also breaking through to his maiden Grand Slam Semi-final which arrived courtesy of an excellent showing at Wimbledon.

Traditionally, Bautista Agut has thrived in the early part of the calendar, collecting all nine of his career titles before August. Furthermore, this part of the world has been a happy hunting ground for the 32-year old, having previously won two titles in Auckland, while boasting a brilliant 15-8 record in Melbourne.

Bautista Agut is in his absolute prime with the Australian Open a legitimate - perhaps his very best - chance to make some serious noise at Grand Slam level.

KEY STAT: ACE RATE

Bautista Agut has so many strings to his bow, with his brilliance translating to all surfaces. His one Achilles’ heel, however, remains his inability to pose a serious threat on serve, with the Spaniard dialling up an ace on just 5% of his serves in 2019 which was one of the very lowest numbers on tour, and well below the ATP average of 9.1%.  

MATTEO BERRETTINI

STATS INSIDER HARD COURT RANK: #30

AVG MARKET AUSTRALIAN OPEN WIN ODDS: $101 (100/1 or +10000)

This time last year, Italy’s Matteo Berrettini was ranked the ATP's #52 in the world, had just a solitary ATP title to his name (2018 Swiss Open) and had never beaten a top-ten player.

Twelve months later, and Berrettini returns to Australia as ATP #8, having knocked off no less than six top-ten opponents in 2019. The Rome-born 23-year old not only won two titles last season (Hungary and Stuttgart) but his US Open Semi Final run was what truly put himself on the map, having not won a single match at Flushing Meadows previously.

While an abdominal injury meant Berrettini had to pull out of this year’s ATP Cup, look for him to cause some damage at the season’s opening Slam.

KEY STAT: 17.6%

When Berrettini had break point opportunities in 2019 he converted at just 17.6% which was the eighth-worst rate on the ATP Tour and a number he’ll have to improve upon if he is to consolidate his top-ten status. Players on tour last year on average converted 22.2% of their break point chances, with Nadal leading the way at 34.8%, and Novak Djokovic just behind him at 32.3%.

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