This image is a derivative of Nick Kyrgios by Rob Keating (CC BY-SA 2.0)

Despite the lack of competitive diversity across the ATP in recent years, the 2019 US Open promises to potentially disrupt the ‘Big 3’ and its thorough dominance of men’s tennis over the last two decades.

Last week’s Masters event in Cincinnati provided a small glimpse into tennis’ future, with Daniil Medvedev beating Novak Djokovic in the semi, before defeating David Goffin in the final, making for the Russian’s most significant title to date.

Three of the quarter-finalists in Cincinnati were 23 years and under (Andrey Rublev, Yoshihito Nishioka and Medvedev) while 25-year-old Lucas Pouille also qualified for the last eight, finally delivering on the form he demonstrated at the Australian Open, where the Frenchmen produced an improbable semi-final run.

While it would be a fool’s errand to suggest any of the big three are about to relinquish their stranglehold at the top of the sport, the US Open in recent years has been the one Grand Slam on tour which has opened its windows and allowed a little non-Big 3 air to flow through.

In 2009, Juan Martin Del Potro broke through to collect his only Grand Slam title to date. In 2014, Marin Cilic stunned the tennis world by beating Roger Federer in straight sets in the SF, before claiming his first major championship a couple of days later. It was a similar story in 2016, when Stan Wawrinka won his third Grand Slam crown, a victory, in fact, which kicked started the current, 11 Grand Slam streak the 'Big 3' are currently enjoying.

While Novak Djokovic will start as a prohibitive favourite in New York as he searches for his 17^th career major, there’s every chance someone from outside the ‘Big 3’ can emerge to create one mighty US Open memory. 

In the interests of competitive diversity, we have identified five players with a chance of breaking through over the next couple of weeks.

PREDICTIONS: SEE THE US OPEN SCHEDULE

Daniil Medvedev

Breaking through to win his maiden Masters title was one milestone, moving into the world’s top five for the first time was yet another for emerging star Daniil Medvedev.

While Medvedev is yet to make any serious noise at Grand Slam level, boasting a modest 11-11 win-loss record, his form at Masters level in 2019 has been solid, particularly once the tour transitioned to his preferred hard courts.

In fact, post-Wimbledon, Medvedev has seen a much more focused player emerge, compiling a 14-2 record which saw him contest the Final in Washington, the semi in Toronto and finally his Cincinnati masterpiece, where he caused one of the upsets of the year, toppling Djokovic.

KEY STAT:  54.8%

When Medvedev gets to face an opponent’s second serve he has won 54.8% of the points on offer. A metric bettered by only Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and one of the sport's very best defenders, Diego Sebastian Schwartzman.

ATP RANK: #5

STATS INSIDER HARD COURT RANK: #4

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Felix Auger Aliassime

The Montreal-born youngster has been one of tennis’ revelations in 2019. Felix Auger Aliassime entered the year as a relative unknown, outside the world’s top 100, and having participated in just ten total ATP tournaments where he had produced a pedestrian 6-11 record.

Yet his rise this season has been one of the most exciting developments on the men's tour, making three different finals in Rio, Lyon and Stuttgart, while qualifying for the Miami Masters semi-final.

At just 19 years of age, Aliassime will enter the US Open as the ATP's world #19, while feeling he has what it takes to mix it with the best. He boasts a 9-7 record against world top 20 players over the last 12 months, which includes victories over the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas, Milos Raonic and Pouille.

In an era commanded by the familiar faces of the 'Big 3,' there’s something amazingly refreshing about the Canadian’s rise, while a big showing in New York will be sure to elevate him to household name status.

KEY STAT: Double Fault Rate

At 5.9%, Aliassime actually ranks fourth on tour in terms of how frequently he is gifting points to his opponent through double faults. For as brilliant as his journey has been in 2019, cleaning up this stat may very well propel him to even greater heights.

ATP RANK: #19

STATS INSIDER HARD COURT RANK: #50

UPDATE: Defeated by Denis Shapovalov in Round 1.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

The young Greek phenom is going to make a significant tour breakthrough sooner rather than later and what better stage than the bright lights of New York.

Just 21 years old and already a winner of three titles in the last 12 months, along with a career-high ranking of five, many believe Stefanos Tsitsipas to be on the cusp of a signature tournament breakthrough.

Like Medvedev, Tsitsipas’ game hasn’t exactly translated to the Grand Slams, boasting a modest 13-9 record which is a number helped by an incredible run at this year's Australian Open when he ousted Federer at the quarter-final stage.

For Tsitsipas to make some noise at Flushing Meadows, he’ll have to end his current barren run of form which saw him ousted in the second rounds of both Toronto and Cincinnati, which is anything but ideal form to be taking into the year’s final major.

KEY STAT: Tiebreak Win Percentage

If you can avoid it, it’s best not to find yourself in a tiebreak situation against Tsitsipas. At 69.2%, only Novak Djokovic fares better on tour this year in those sudden death situations. Interestingly, at 67.6%, Felix Auger Aliassime is ranked third.

ATP RANK: #8

STATS INSIDER HARD COURT RANK: #16

UPDATE: Defeated by Andrey Rublev in Round 1.

PREDICTIONS: SEE THE US OPEN SCHEDULE

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Nick Kyrgios 

Tennis’ 'enfant terrible' is capable of just about anything. In fact, Nick Kyrgios is just as likely to produce a live python from his tennis bag and hurl it across the court as he is winning the entire US Open.

While Kyrgios’ talent is unquestionable, with his very best being nearly unbeatable, his mental aptitude is, needless to say - rather suspect - particularly on the tour’s bigger stages, and particularly over a two-week major tournament.

It’s easy to forget that at just 24 years old, Kyrgios has already collected six career titles, however, he’s neither broken through to the ATP's Top 10, nor made any impact whatsoever at Grand Slam level.

In fact of the 23 Grand Slam events Kyrgios has contested, he’s compiled a decent, but modest 35-23 record while not once breaking through to a semi-final.

If everything goes right for Kyrgios in New York, which is a bigger ‘if’ than the skyscrapers which loom over Arthur Ashe Stadium, then the Australian is every chance to make a serious tournament impact.

KEY STAT: 87.9%

Kyrgios is holding 87.9% of his service games, ranked #9 in the world in this metric, and in the company of some of the tour's most fearsome servers such as John Isner, Kevin Anderson and Milos Raonic.

ATP RANK: #29

STATS INSIDER HARD COURT RANK: #8

UPDATE: Defeated by Andrey Rublev in Round 3.

Alex De Minaur

Continuing the Australian theme, it is sometimes easy to forget amidst the negative headlines surrounding the likes of Kyrgios and to a lesser extent Bernard Tomic, but Alex De Minaur has quietly had an excellent 2019.

At just 20 years of age, De Minaur’s recent Atlanta Open victory - his second of the year - took him into the ATP's Top 25, with his eyes now firmly set on making a decent run at the US Open.

While De Minaur's form was sub-standard in the two Masters lead up events, a big Grand Slam performance is still on the cards should he knuckle down and find his zone.

The US Open will be De Minaur's 11^th career Grand Slam appearance, which is a level he’s struggled at so far, with a paltry 9-10 win-loss record, which has resulted in him never advancing beyond the third round.

KEY STAT: 0-7

De Minaur’s sub-optimal career record against Top 20 opposition. In order to take the next step in his burgeoning career, this is, of course, one stat he simply must improve upon.

ATP RANK: #36

STATS INSIDER HARD COURT RANK: #33

UPDATE: Defeated by Grigor Dimitrov in Round of 16.

As with every ATP, WTA and major tournament, Stats Insider will be covering every match during the US Open, from daily updated custom World Rankings, to US Open winner projections, pre-match predictions and now, our brand new live in-play probabilities.

Keep an eye on our Tennis hub for all the 2019 US Open action!

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