Ash Barty receives a Wimbledon test worthy of a World #1
Last updated: Jul 1, 2019, 5:09AM | Published: Jun 28, 2019, 2:44PMThis image is a derivative of Sydney International Tennis WTA Premier Sydney,
by Rob Keating (CC BY-SA 2.0)
It is as though the gods and goddesses of tennis made a very simple statement to Ash Barty at the Wimbledon draw on Friday:
"You're World #1.
You're the first Australian woman to be No. 1 since Evonne Goolagong.
You're one of the very few WTA players in the Open Era to be No. 1 from a continent other than North America or Europe.
Prove it. Prove how good you really are."
She will have to.
Barty received the test of a champion, the kind of test elite players look in the eye and pass with flying colors.
If Barty wins Wimbledon in 2019, she will have certainly earned it. No lucky draws, no backdoor routes through modest or soft opposition.
This is the toughest path one could realistically have imagined.
Major champion, Svetlana Kuznetsova awaits Barty in round two.
Wimbledon champion, Garbine Muguruza could be her opponent in round three.
Belinda Bencic or Donna Vekic, both formidable grass-court players, would provide a likely opponent in round four.
The breathers - the easy matches sandwiched between tough ones - simply do not exist for Barty at the All England Club.
If she gets past Kuznetsova and Muguruza and then Vekic or Bencic, her Quarter Final opponent could be Serena Williams - owner of 23 major singles titles - or defending Wimbledon champion, Angelique Kerber.
Semi Final?
Two-time Wimbledon champion, Petra Kvitova, OR major champion Sloane Stephens, OR 2017 Wimbledon Semi Finalist and British home favourite, Jo Konta.
One could easily make the argument that Barty's possible opponent in a Wimbledon Final (remember, she played Marketa Vondrousova in her Roland Garros decider) will be EASIER than her fourth-round, QF, and SF opponents.
On Wimbledon preview podcasts - either as a co-host or as a guest - over the past week, I said that Barty, Kvitova and Serena deserved to be the top three favourites for the Wimbledon title. Well, given the shape of the draw, only one of the three can be in the Wimbledon Final.
At least two won't get there.
SIMULATE 10,000 POSSIBILITIES FOR ASH BARTY'S WIMBLEDON JOURNEY
Kerber and Bencic - the players I likely would have valued after Barty, Kvitova and Serena - are in the same quarter as Barty.
This tweet might sum up the ridiculously stacked top quarter of the Wimbledon women's draw more than anything else:
It is true that draws on paper don't always become reality. It could be that upset results make Barty's path a lot smoother than it currently appears to be. Yet, the limitation on that line of thought is that if, for instance, one player in Barty's path goes down, another similarly tough player is still likely to be there.
If not Bencic, then Vekic.
If not Serena, then Kerber.
If not Kvitova, then Stephens or Konta.
Bencic-Serena-Kvitova would be the worst possible path, so by comparison, a Vekic-Kerber-Stephens path wouldn't be nearly as ferocious.
Yet, Vekic-Kerber-Stephens on grass is a much harder draw than what players in the bottom half of the draw will be contending with.
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Karolina Pliskova and Elina Svitolina have never made a Wimbledon Quarter Final. Naomi Osaka struggles on grass, and Simona Halep is a mystery right now. The bottom half has a number of question marks among its higher-seeded players. All the conspicuously dangerous grass players are in the top half, especially in the top quarter, where the World #1 player resides.
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Ash Barty's rise to No. 1 has been greeted by the toughest draw one could reasonably imagine.
Winning Wimbledon under any circumstance would be historic and transformative. If Ash Barty can win Wimbledon under THIS set of circumstances, her stature will be magnified that much more.
One final point: many times, a player can play a legitimately great tournament and still not win it.
Think of Lleyton Hewitt at the 2005 Australian Open, or Sam Stosur at the 2010 French Open. Ash Barty could be that kind of player this year.
Maybe she will lift the Venus Rosewater Dish as champion on Saturday, July 13. Maybe she will lose to Serena in a classic Quarter Final. All anyone can ask of Ashleigh Barty is that win or lose, she requires her opponent to play supremely great tennis in order to prevent her from taking her place in history at the All England Club.
This fortnight promises to be special, one way or another.
We will see if Ash Barty is part of that special story at The Championships of Wimbledon.
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