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Beyond Barty: realistic goals for the Australians at Wimbledon

This image is a derivative of John Millman by Carine06 (CC BY-SA 2.0)

If Ash Barty wins Wimbledon, Australians will be happy no matter what else happens. However, we do have two fields of 128 players apiece, and plenty of Australians in both the men's and women's tournaments. What can each of these players realistically achieve? We will find out soon enough, but let's put some expectations down in writing so that you can grapple with these assessments:

Women's Singles:

I said everything I wanted to say about Ash Barty's Wimbledon here at Stats Insider.

READ: Ash Barty receives a Wimbledon test worthy of a World #1

Samantha Stosur draws Carla Suarez Navarro in round one. At a clay or hardcourt major, CSN would be the pick, but grass is a different story. Sam has a great chance there, and she should expect to win. Stosur could get Maria Sharapova in the second round. Given Sharapova's injury woes and overall lack of regular match play, it is hard to say how a match with Stosur would unfold. Sam would certainly have a legitimate shot of winning. If Stosur can get to the third round and earn a meeting with defending champion Angelique Kerber, that would be a great tournament for her.

MORE: The 10 ladies to keep an eye on at the All England Club in 2019

Arina Rodionova draws green clay specialist Taylor Townsend in round one. That's not a joke: Townsend rips up the challenger circuit on green clay. That is her surface. This is green, but it isn't clay. Advantage Rodionova. Winning that match would mean a successful Wimbledon for Rodionova. Kiki Bertens would probably cause the music to stop in round two.

The bad news for Daria Gavrilova: She plays a top-8 seed in round one. The good news: It is Elina Svitolina at Wimbledon. If any top-10 WTA player struggles at Wimbledon, it is Svitolina. I wouldn't expect Gavrilova to win, but it figures to be a close match.

Ajla Tomljanovic is a gifted ballstriker. She can beat Daria Kasatkina. If she does, she would probably then play Victoria Azarenka. This is a nasty draw for Ajla, but one win at this Wimbledon would be a notable achievement.

Astra Sharma also received a bad draw. Sofia Kenin is on fire right now, having beaten Elise Mertens, Anastasija Sevastova, and Belinda Bencic - all top-25 players - to win the Mallorca title a week ago. If Sharma can pull off the upset there, she would probably play 2018 Wimbledon quarterfinalist Camila Giorgi, possibly rising youngster Dayana Yastremska. It is hard to think about the third round and a date with Naomi Osaka when the first two rounds are so tough. Merely one win would be a great result.

RELATED: Experience your favourite Australian Ladies' Wimbledon journey with our Tournament Simulator!

Men's Singles:

Alexei Popyrin, who is working with 1987 Wimbledon champion Pat Cash as his coach, isn't in position to think about winning a major title. He should, however, think he has a good chance of winning his first-round match. Pablo Carreno Busta had not won a main-draw match on grass heading into this past week's ATP 250 tournament in Antalya, Turkey. He finally collected a few wins, but that hardly makes him a transformed player on lawns. Popyrin would not be expected to beat Daniil Medvedev in round two, but if he can take PCB on a bad trip and notch a Wimbledon victory, that would represent a good tournament for him.

READ: 10 players who could win the Wimbledon men's singles title

John Millman has a very good draw. His first-round opponent, Hugo Dellien, is not only from Bolivia, where clay tennis is emphasized; Dellien is playing a clay challenger final on Sunday and then has to move to Wimbledon to play this first-round match on Tuesday. Millman should definitely win that match. The seed in his immediate corner of the bracket is clay specialist Laslo Djere. Millman ought to be favored in that match, or viewed as a pick-'em at worst.

Being realistic, Millman should aim for the third round as a goal. He would have a puncher's chance to beat Dominic Thiem in the third round, but that shouldn't necessarily be expected. The main thing for Millman is to get that far and see what he can do. If he can't make the third round, it would feel like a missed opportunity, at least from this vantage point.

Bernard Tomic drew Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who nearly beat Roger Federer in Halle, Germany, a week and a half ago. That is a nasty draw on grass for Tomic. Let's see if he can take the match five sets. Few will expect him to win the match outright.

Nick Kyrgios and Jordan Thompson meet each other, with the winner to play Rafael Nadal. (What? You mean I am writing off Yuichi Sugita? Yes, I am.) Every Kyrgios conversation begins with, "Is he going to commit himself to each and every point and display top-tier stamina and toughness?" Knowing Nadal is on the horizon might motivate Kyrgios enough to advance against Thompson, but Thompson figures to make Kyrgios work and test Nick's limits. I want to see Kyrgios succeed, but wanting to see someone succeed and thinking someone is ready to do well are two very different things. We will all know when Nick Kyrgios is serious about winning big trophies in tennis. Right now, I don't think he is. Nevertheless, if one tournament on this planet can magnify Kyrgios' strengths and give him a chance to do well, it's Wimbledon. Kyrgios could make the quarterfinals if he gets past Rafa, but again, will he even GET to Rafa and survive round one? I don't know. I don't think you do, either. No one does.

Alex de Minaur made the third round of Wimbledon last year and lost to Nadal. This year, he gets clay-courter Marco Cecchinato in round one, a great draw. De Minaur would have a great tournament if he can win two matches before meeting Kei Nishikori in round three.

Matthew Ebden doesn't have an easy first-round draw, but if you are going to play Diego Schwartzman, you ought to play him on grass, where he is conspicuously weak. Ebden would have a tough second-round match with Filip Krajinovic, so I wouldn't expect more than one win at this tournament. That would be a solid result. Two would be outstanding.

EXPERIENCE: What will it take for an Aussie to win the Wimbledon Men's Singles?


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Matt Zemek

Matt has written professionally about US College Football since 2000, and has blogged about professional Tennis since 2014. He wants the Australian Open to play Thursday night Women's Semi-Finals, and Friday evening Men's Semi-Finals. Contribute to his Patreon for exclusive content here.

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