The 5 outsiders who could claim the French Open men's title
Last updated: May 24, 2019, 5:36AM | Published: May 24, 2019, 3:55AM
For the past 15 years, men’s professional tennis has been thoroughly and unequivocally dominated by three individuals.
What all of Rafa Nadal, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic have done from a competitive standpoint has been truly outrageous, with the trio gobbling up an astonishing 52 of the past 63 Grand Slam titles that have been up for grabs.
And - despite their advancing ages - it could be legitimately argued that the three are only solidifying their python-like grip upon the ATP, having cannibalised the last nine majors and eight of the past 12 Masters events.
From a competitive standpoint, the sheer dominance of the three champions has been a major roadblock in terms of ATP tour diversity and competitiveness (particularly at Grand Slam level), though it’s in no way affected viewership numbers or fan engagement in the sport.
However, what would make the tennis world seriously come to life would be a challenger to emerge from the shadows, and potentially disrupt the big three hegemony.
And what better venue for that fairytale to take place than at Roland Garros, where Rafa Nadal has reigned supreme, taking home no less than an incredible 11 French Open titles, and where he boasts a ridiculous 86-2 record (97.7%).
FRENCH OPEN SIMULATOR: 10,000 Ways the Men's French Open Could Play Out
Should someone snatch the Spaniard's crown at the very scene of his obscene clay court domination, then the sports world would have one hell of a story on its hands.
Below are five men who can stake a claim on making some major noise over the next couple of weeks in Paris.
Perhaps a daring Quarter-Final run?
Maybe a surprise opponent for one of the big three to slay in the French Open Final?
Or maybe... just maybe, a new Grand Slam winner altogether.
DOMINIC THIEM
This young Austrian has all the tools on tour to break through at a big event such as the French Open, and has completely overhauled his preparation for this year’s event to make that dream a reality.
By taking in a couple of South America’s clay events in the aftermath of his disappointing Australian Open campaign, Dominic Thiem has looked to prioritise the clay court and ensure his body is fit and firing to maximise what’s unquestionably his best surface.
His schedule adjustments already appear to have paid off handsomely having hoisted the Indian Wells trophy in March (his first ever Masters event to date), defeating a Swiss player by the name of Roger Federer in the process. And, in the Final, no less.
Thiem’s French Open form line would suggest he is very much ready to break through, with back-to-back Roland Garros Semi-Finals in 2016 and 2017, punctuated with a Final appearance last year where he lost in straight sets to the invincible Rafa Nadal.
Thiem’s recent clay court form has been predictably excellent, with a championship in Barcelona followed by a Semi-Final run in Madrid, where he fell to Djokovic.
At just 25 years old - and already with 13 career titles in the trophy cabinet - Thiem’s 14th could be a very special one indeed.
KEY STAT: Fifteen-love.
15 wins from his last 15 matches at Roland Garros against opponents not named Rafa Nadal or Novak Djokovic. Beat one of these guys and we might have a new ‘King of Clay’ on our hands.
TAB Odds: $8
At the time of writing, the ATP has Dominic Thiem ranked #4th in the world, while Stats Insider has him ranked #8th overall, but #3rd on the clay courts. See Stats Insider's custom tennis world rankings.
STEFANOS TSITSIPAS
20 years old and already #6 in the world, this young man from Athens has been one of the best stories on the tour in 2019.
No ATP player has made as many as the four tournament finals he’s already reached in 2019, a streak capped by a Final appearance in Madrid, where he beat Rafa Nadal in the Semi-Final - before squaring off with Djokovic in the famous Caja Magica.
Tsitspias’ game is an absolute joy to watch, full of youthful abandon and confidence. Australian viewers had a front row seat to the young Greek’s game with his thrilling journey through the Australian Open which saw him collect the scalp of Roger Federer before falling to Nadal in a lopsided Semi-Final.
That Tsitsipas will be a Grand Slam champion is probably more a matter of when, not if.
Perhaps that ‘when’ will be sooner rather than later, at the 2019 French Open?
KEY STAT: Ace rate against, on clay.
Tsitspias concedes an ace on just 2.9% of the serves that are delivered to him on clay. Only the Hungarian, Marton Fucsovics, and 3-time Grand Slam champion, Stan Wawrinka, are harder to serve an ace against, on clay.
TAB Odds: $21
As of time of writing, the ATP has Stefanos Tsitsipas ranked #6th in the world, while Stats Insider has him ranked #7th overall, but as high as #4th on clay courts. See Stats Insider's custom tennis world rankings.
DIEGO SCHWARTZMAN
This dude is tough. I mean really tough. The kind of tough that if the ATP were to ever introduce a best of 19 sets at Grand Slam level, I’m sure the 26-year-old Argentinean, Diego Schwartzman would be one of the first to endorse the plan.
Schwartzman has spent the past three years in the ATP Top 50, slowly chiselling down his ranking, which in June last year sat as low as #11.
And while Grad Slams haven’t been particularly kind to Schwartzman (he has just two Quarter-Final appearances from the 19 majors he’s contested) it’s the French Open which has been by far his favourite tournament, and where he boasts a 62% win rate.
It is indeed the clay where Schwartzman shines with the Stats Insider rankings model too, rating him as the #8th best player in the world on the surface, in stark contrast to his #29th overall position.
Schwartzman’s clay court form coming into Paris hasn’t been startling, however, it does seem to have turned a corner in recent weeks, knocking off world #7 Kei Nishikori in the Quarter-Final of the Rome Masters, and even taking a set off Djokovic in a Semi-Final loss.
At the 2019 French Open, Schwartzman will need to channel the spirit of fellow countryman, Gaston Gaudio, who won 2004 iteration, and in the process, became the fifth lowest ranked player to ever win a Grand Slam tournament.
In this year’s event, Schwartzman has been seeded 17th and in a quarter of the draw which includes none of the big three, or Dominic Thiem. One feels that if he’s ever going to break through to a Grand Slam Semi-Final appearance, the 2019 French Open could be the perfect opportunity.
KEY STAT: Second-serve return points won.
You better get your first serve in against Diego Schwartzman, because this guy will jump all over whatever your back-up option is. Schwartzman wins 56.2% of all second serves he faces, which is the very best mark on the entire ATP Tour. All-time greats, Djokovic and Nadal are ranked 2nd and 3rd in this statistic.
TAB Odds: $81
As of the time of writing, the ATP has Diego Schwartzman ranked #20th in the world, while Stats Insider has him ranked #29th overall, but as high as #8th on clay courts. See Stats Insider's custom tennis world rankings.
BERNARD TOMIC
Just joking.
At time of writing, the ATP has Bernard Tomic ranked #82nd in the world, while Stats Insider has him ranked #99th overall, and as low as #716th on clay courts. This could be due to a historical lack of action on the surface, indicating there isn't enough data to rank him accurately on clay courts. See Stats Insider's custom tennis world rankings.
FELIX AUGER-ALIASSIME
This time last year the 18-year-old Canadian was ranked around #180 and contesting Challenger events in Lisbon, as well as towns I’ve never heard of such as Blois and Barletta.
One year later Felix Auger-Aliassime is perhaps the best teenage prospect in all of men’s tennis, and arrives at the 2019 French Open as the #25th seed.
2019 has been an absolutely incredible journey for the Montreal born youngster, who raced all the way to the Final in Rio de Janeiro in February and backed up with a completely improbable Semi-Final run at the Miami Masters just weeks later.
If there were any lingering doubts the young man would run out of steam once the European Clay Court season began, they’ve been seriously quelled as Auger-Aliassime has elbowed his way to the Semi-Finals of the Lyon Open, days out from what will be his first ever Grand Slam tournament.
It’s been a thrilling ride for young Felix, and when you consider that he’s in a section of the draw that doesn’t include any of Nadal, Federer or Djokovic, things could get even more thrilling over the next couple of weeks.
KEY STAT: Second-serve points won.
At just 49.1% this is a number Felix Auger-Aliassime will have to improve upon, if he’s to consistently trade blows with some of the ATP heavyweights in the later rounds.
TAB Odds: $101
As of the time of writing, the ATP has Felix Auger-Aliassime ranked #28th in the world, while Stats Insider has him ranked #40th overall, and #40th on clay. See Stats Insider's custom tennis world rankings.
GUIDO PELLA
One for the tennis hipsters out there, and one for Stats Insiders tennis rankings which places the veteran Argentinean as the ninth best player in the world when it comes to clay.
What?! Where does he rank on hard courts though?? #612th, but that’s not why we’re here.
Sometimes you need a very specific person to do a very specific job, and in this case, it's Guido Pella - and his clay court prowess - which could propel him to one hell of a ride at the 2019 French Open.
The 29-year-old is something of a late bloomer, only claiming his first ever title in Brazil in February, 2019, which contributed greatly to his highest ever ATP ranking which currently sits at #22.
Guido has the #19th seed at this year’s event, which has been rewarded with the ‘privilege’ of being placed smack bang in the middle of Rafa Nadal’s section, with the two potentially on course to meet in the Round of 16.
KEY STAT: 72.2%.
Pella has won 26 of his last 36 (72.2%) matches on clay.
TAB Odds: $151
As at the time of writing, the ATP has Guido Pella ranked #22nd in the world, while Stats Insider has him ranked #75th overall, but an incredible #9th on clay courts. See Stats Insider's custom tennis world rankings.
FRENCH OPEN SIMULATOR: 10,000 Ways the Men's French Open Could Play Out
Now take a look at the 5 women outsiders who could claim the 2019 French Open crown:
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