2023 NRL Futures: Rabbitohs Rise to Top of Premiership Model
Mar 8, 2023, 5:37AM
The Rabbitohs are the most likely team to win the 2023 NRL premiership, according to Stats Insider's data-driven NRL futures model.
Following a strong start to the season with a 27-18 win over the Sharks, Souths have the highest probability of winning the 2023 NRL title, followed by the Panthers, Cowboys, and Storm.
The Rabbitohs, who are $7.00 with the TAB to win the 2023 NRL grand final, lead our premiership probabilities at 16.8%, just ahead of last year's winners, the Panthers, at 14.4%.
The Cowboys are next best with a 14.0% chance of winning the 2023 NRL premiership, while the Storm, at 13.5%, round out the top four chances following their extra-time win against the Eels.
The Panthers ($6.00) remain the favourites with the bookmakers to win this year's NRL premiership, despite their opening-round loss to the Broncos.
READ: 2023 NRL Premiership Contenders: How Much Should You Read Into Round 1 Losses?
2023 NRL Premiership Probabilities
| Team | Winning Probability |
| South Sydney Rabbitohs | 16.8% |
| Penrith Panthers | 14.4% |
| North Queensland Cowboys | 14.0% |
| Melbourne Storm | 13.5% |
| Sydney Roosters | 12.6% |
| Cronulla Sharks | 8.5% |
| Parramatta Eels | 5.3% |
| Canberra Raiders | 4.9% |
All probabilities are correct at the time of publishing.
Roosters Slide in NRL Premiership Probabilities
The Roosters were the big losers of Round 1, according to Stats Insider's predictive analytics model.
Sydney lost its opening-round match-up to the Dolphins in an early contender for the upset of the season after starting the game with an 82% win probability per Stats Insider's pre-game analysis.
The Dolphins had a dream #NRL debut against the Roosters.
— Stats Insider (@StatsInsider) March 6, 2023
According to our in-play predictive model, their win probability dropped to a low of 7.2% and did not exceed 50% until the 50th minute in #NRLDolphinsRoosters. pic.twitter.com/7eEVH5mfC7
The win saw the Dolphins, who were one of the teams expected to finish with the most NRL losses in 2023, improve considerably to have just an 8.8% probability in that market.
Following the shock loss, the Roosters slumped to fifth in our overall NRL premiership probabilities at 12.6% but retained second-favourite status with the TAB at $6.50.
Knights Likely to Have the Most NRL Losses
After opening the season with a loss to the Warriors in New Zealand, the Knights are the most likely team to have the most NRL losses in 2023 according to both the bookmakers and our NRL futures model.
The Knights levelled the scores early in the second half and had 54.3% win probability at one point, but they ultimately came up short against the Warriors, who our model has as a 10% chance for the most NRL losses in 2023.
Quick hands down the left! pic.twitter.com/uTetJ1cPoh
— Newcastle Knights (@NRLKnights) March 3, 2023
Our NRL futures model has the Knights as a 20.2% chance to have the most losses this season, ahead of the Bulldogs at 15.3% and the Tigers at 13.1%.
Stats Insider's schedule difficulty analysis has given the Knights a favourable run across the next month, including their Round 2 clash against fellow strugglers the Tigers.
The Knights will likely rise in our most losses probabilities if they are unable to beat the Tigers on Sunday.
