AFL 2023 Futures: Collingwood and Melbourne Rise up Premiership Probabilities
Mar 20, 2023, 5:26AM
Collingwood has moved into the top four of Stats Insider's data-driven 2023 AFL premiership probabilities after winning its Round 1 clash against Geelong.
The Magpies started their season off in style with a 125-103 win against the Cats, which saw them rise in our probabilities after starting the season at 9.8%.
Collingwood is now the fourth-most probable team to win the 2023 AFL premiership at 11.6%.
Collingwood's next game is against Port Adelaide at the MCG on Saturday.
The other big mover with our independent AFL futures model was Melbourne.
The Demons dominated from the opening quarter on in their 50-point win over the Western Bulldogs, which was noticed by our predictive model.
Melbourne is now second in our 2023 AFL premiership probabilities at 14.8%, but Betfair has gone a step further, making the Demons the betting favourites for the flag.
READ: Which Teams Can Force Their Way Into the 2023 AFL Finals?
2023 AFL Premiership Probabilities
| Team | Winning Probability |
| Geelong Cats | 20.8% |
| Melbourne Demons | 14.8% |
| Richmond Tigers | 14.4% |
| Collingwood Magpies | 11.6% |
| Port Adelaide Power | 8.6% |
| Sydney Swans | 8.1% |
| Carlton Blues | 7.5% |
| Brisbane Lions | 5.9% |
All probabilities are correct at the time of publishing.
North Melbourne Still Most Probable for Most Losses Despite Round 1 Win
While North Melbourne opened its campaign with a five-point win over West Coast, it did little to improve its hopes of not finishing on the bottom of the ladder.
North Melbourne remains the most likely team to have the most AFL losses in 2023 at 35.3%.
That probability is reflected by Betfair, who also have North Melbourne as the most likely team to have the most losses.
The Kangaroos withstood a last-quarter surge from the Eagles to win by under a goal, but our AFL expert said the match went according to plan.
"The best part about our data-driven model is it keeps the emotion out of it," he said.
"While it was a great game for the supporters, North Melbourne went into the game as favourites and only just covered the line. The win was great for the supporters but from a data-driven, objective point of view, they did what the model anticipated."
MORE: 2023 AFL Schedule Difficulty
Our expert believes the upcoming stretch of home games for the Eagles will be vital in deciding their fate in 2023.
"The home-ground advantage in Perth is such a big factor for the Eagles, and with their next three games being played at Optus Stadium, we'll get a much better understanding of where West Coast is truly at by the end of April."
The Eagles put their home ground advantage to the test against the Giants on Sunday afternoon to round out the second week of the 2023 AFL season.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
