AFL Best Bets and Odds for Round 11, 2023

Last updated: May 28, 2023, 8:03AM | Published: May 26, 2023, 3:55AM

Round 11 of the 2023 AFL season is here, and we have AFL best bets and AFL odds for the upcoming weekend.

Here at Stats Insider, we have simulated every Round 11 AFL game 10,000 times to find the best value for AFL punters this weekend.

After going through our AFL best bets and AFL betting odds, our data-driven predictive analytics model has found the best AFL betting tips for Round 11.

MORE: AFL Best Bets

AFL Bets and Odds Round 11

Sydney vs Carlton Under 164.5 Total Points at $1.88

Sydney and Carlton kick off Round 11 of the 2023 AFL season on Friday night at the SCG.

Last round, the Swans defeated North Melbourne 93-90, while the Blues lost to Collingwood by 28 points.

Our AFL predictive model believes the total points line staying below 164.5 is the more probable outcome between the Swans and Blues, and with Betfair posting $1.88 odds, Sydney vs Carlton Under 164.5 Total Points is one of the AFL best bets this weekend.

Sydney vs Carlton is at the Sydney Cricket Ground on Friday, May 26 at 7:50pm. All times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST).

Hawthorn +25.5 Against St Kilda at $1.86

St Kilda hosts Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

In Round 10, the Saints defeated GWS by 12 points, while the Hawks were too good for West Coast, winning 142-26.

Our AFL predictive model believes the Hawks are overvalued by Betfair with a head start against the Saints, which makes Hawthorn +25.5 against St Kilda one of the AFL best bets for Round 11.

St Kilda vs Hawthorn is at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, May 27 at 1:45pm.

Richmond to Beat Port Adelaide at $2.10

Richmond and Port Adelaide clash at the MCG on Sunday afternoon.

Last week, the Tigers were beaten by Essendon by a single point, while the Power were too good for Melbourne, winning 80-76.

Stats Insider's AFL predictive model values the Tigers at $1.66 to beat the Power, and with Betfair offering $2.10, Richmond to beat Port Adelaide is one of the best AFL bets of Round 11.

Richmond vs Port Adelaide is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday, May 28 at 1:10pm.

MORE: 2023 AFL Schedule Difficulty

AFL Best Bets Round 11, 2023

Our three AFL best bets of the weekend are selected after 10,000 simulations of each game in Round 11.

Sydney vs Carlton Under 164.5 Total Points at $1.83
Hawthorn +25.5 Against St Kilda at $1.86
Richmond to Beat Port Adelaide at $2.10

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

At Stats Insider, we strongly encourage our readers to set limits for themselves and gamble responsibly within their means.

If you decide to use our AFL betting tips for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Todd Davey

Todd Davey is a seasoned journalist and passionate sports fan with a strong interest in the AFL, NBA, and NRL. He has amassed valuable experience through his roles at The Canberra Times, Buddybet, Bets.com.au, and HorseBetting.com.au. With a commitment to delivering trustworthy and current information, Todd is a highly regarded source in Australia for engaging sports content and insightful analysis.