AFL Best Bets and Odds for Round 20, 2023
Last updated: Jul 30, 2023, 9:18AM | Published: Jul 28, 2023, 5:08AM
We have AFL best bets and AFL odds for the upcoming weekend of action, Round 20 of the 2023 AFL season.
Here at Stats Insider, we have used our powerful and well-renowned model to simulate every Round 20 AFL game 10,000 times each, finding the best AFL best betsfor punters across the country this weekend.
All odds for this article were taken from the Betfair Exchange. Follow the link to join the Betfair communitynow and take advantage of all of our AFL best bets via the Exchange.
MORE: AFL Best Bets
AFL Bets and Odds: Round 20
Adelaide vs Port Adelaide Total Game Score Under 176.5 at $1.92
The showdown going under the total game score of 176.5 is our first AFL best bet for Round 20.
The grudge match of Round 20 sees the Crows hosting the Power in what is typically not a high scoring affair. The two teams haven't exceeded over 176.5 in six of the last eight Showdowns.
The Adelaide vs Port Adelaide under total game score of 176.5 has a 58% probability of being successful according to Stats Insider's AFL predictive model.
This makes the total game score under 176.5 on the Betfair Exchange one of the best AFL bets of Round 20.
Adelaide vs Port Adelaide is at Adelaide Oval on Saturday, July 29 at 7:40pm. All times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST).
Hawthorn to Defeat St Kilda at $2.24
Hawthorn faces St Kilda at Marvel Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
The Hawks continued their impressive late-season form, but succumbed late to a Richmond onslaught, going down by one point to the Tigers. Conversely, St Kilda were less than impressive in their win over North Melbourne, trailing at three quarter time by 16 points before powering past the bottom two Roos.
The two sides bring contrasting form into this contest, and our predictive model believes there's a 3% edge on the Hawks in this one, making Hawthorn one of the best AFL bets of Round 20.
Hawthorn vs St Kilda is at Marvel Stadium on Sunday, July 30 at 1:10pm.
Richmond to Defeat Melbourne at $2.54
Richmond faces off against Melbourne in our final AFL best bet, with the Tigers the outsiders on the Betfair Exchange.
Richmond has had a strong run of form over Melbourne dating back to 2018, with the Tigers winning five of the last eight games against the Demons.
Our model rates the Tigers as a $2.33 chance heading into Sunday's match up, making the $2.54 currently on offer on the Betfair Exchange a 4% edge. This makes Richmond one of the AFL best bets of Round 20.
Richmond vs Melbourne is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday, July 30 at 3:20pm.
AFL Best Bets Round 20, 2023
Our three AFL best bets of the weekend are selected after 10,000 simulations of each game in Round 20.
- Adelaide vs Port Adelaide Under 176.5 total game score at $1.92
- Hawthorn to win vs St Kilda at $2.24
- Richmond to win vs Melbourne at $2.54
All odds and probabilities in this article were found on the Betfair Exchange and are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
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