AFL Best Bets and Odds for Round 21, 2023

We have AFL best bets and AFL odds for the upcoming weekend of action, Round 21 of the 2023 AFL season.

Here at Stats Insider, we have used our powerful and well-renowned model to simulate every Round 21 AFL game 10,000 times each, finding the best AFL best bets for punters across the country this weekend.

All odds for this article were taken from the Betfair Exchange. Follow the link to join the Betfair communitynow and take advantage of all of our AFL best bets via the Exchange.

MORE: AFL Best Bets

AFL Bets and Odds: Round 21

Hawthorn +31.5 vs Collingwood at $2

Hawthorn faces Collingwood at the MCG Saturday afternoon.

The Hawks were defeated by St Kilda 93-122 in Round 20, while Collingwood were taken down by Carlton in the opening game of the weekend.

After 10,000 simulations of the outcome, our AFL predictive model gave the Hawks a 55% chance of covering the line, making Hawthorn +31.5 vs Collingwood one of our best AFL bets of Round 21. 

Hawthorn vs Collingwood is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, August 5 at 4:35pm. All times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST).

GWS to Defeat Sydney at $1.73

GWS taking out the Battle of the Bridge against Sydney is one of our AFL best bet for Round 21.

The Giants come into this game following a 78-73 against the Western Bulldogs, while the Swans defeated the Bombers by two points.

After simulating this game 10,000 times, the Stats Insider predictive model gives the Giants a 63% chance of winning, equating to fair odds of $1.58. This makes the $1.73 on offer at the Betfair Exchange for GWS to defeat Sydney one of our best AFL bets of the weekend.

GWS vs Sydney is at Giants Stadium on Saturday, August 5 at 7:30pm.

Fremantle +13.5 vs Brisbane at $1.88

Fremantle hosts Brisbane at Optus Stadium in our final AFL best bet, with the Dockers as the outsiders on the Betfair Exchange.

Fremantle comes into this game after defeating Geelong at GHMBA Stadium in the club's best performance in years, while Brisbane were defeated in the QClash by the Gold Coast Suns.

Our model rates the Dockers at the line as a $1.67 chance heading into Sunday's match up, making the $1.88 currently on offer on the Betfair Exchange one of the best AFL bets of Round 21.

Fremantle vs Brisbane is at Optus Stadium on Sunday, August 6 at 4:40pm.

AFL Best Bets Round 21, 2023

Our three AFL best bets of the weekend are selected after 10,000 simulations of each game in Round 21.

• Hawthorn +31.5 vs Collingwood at $2
• GWS to defeat Sydney at $1.73
• Fremantle +13.5 vs Brisbane at $1.88

All odds and probabilities in this article were found on the Betfair Exchange and are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

At Stats Insider, we strongly encourage our readers to set limits for themselves and gamble responsibly within their means.

If you decide to use our AFL betting tips for betting purposes, it is crucial to know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.