AFL Best Bets for Round 5, 2023

Last updated: Apr 16, 2023, 10:15AM | Published: Apr 13, 2023, 6:20AM

Round 5 of the 2023 AFL season is here, and we have AFL predictions and the AFL best bets for the weekend.

At Stats Insider, we have simulated every Round 5 AFL game 10,000 times to find value for punters this weekend.

After going through our AFL best bets, AFL odds, and AFL predictions, the AFL experts at Stats Insider have provided AFL betting tips for Round 5.

AFL Bets and Odds, Round 5

Richmond (+11.5) line bet against Sydney at $1.90

Richmond face off against Sydney with both teams coming off narrow losses.

The Tigers are coming off a 5-point loss to the Bulldogs, while the Swans went down 64-66 to the Power at the SCG.

Our AFL predictive model values the Tigers at the line as a $1.69 prospect, but with Betfair posting $1.90 odds, Richmond is one of our AFL best bets this weekend.

Richmond vs Sydney is at Adelaide Oval on Friday, April 14 at 8:10pm AEST.

Geelong vs West Coast Total Points Over 161.5 at $1.80

Geelong and West Coast meet at Adelaide Oval in the first of two Sunday games at Adelaide Oval.

The Cats won their first game of the year on Easter Monday, beating the Hawks by 82-points at the MCG, while the Eagles lost 63-126 to the Demons at Optus Stadium.

Our AFL predictive model has identified the Geelong vs West Coast total points over 161.5 as one of the AFL best bets this weekend.

Geelong vs West Coast is at Adelaide Oval on Sunday, April 16 at 1:10pm AEST.

MORE: 2023 AFL Fixture Difficulty

Collingwood to defeat St Kilda at $1.50

The final game of Gather Round sees Collingwood and St Kilda facing off at Adelaide Oval on Sunday.

The Magpies suffered their first loss of the season against the Lions by 33-points, while the Saints' undefeated start to 2023 continued against the Suns, winning 113-60 to record their fourth-straight victory.

Collingwood is rated at $1.50 with Betfair, which is above our fair odds of $1.43, making Collingwood to defeat St Kilda as one of the AFL best bets of Round 5.

Collingwood vs St Kilda is at Adelaide Oval on Sunday, April 16 at 4:50pm AEST.

AFL Best Bets Round 5, 2023

Our three AFL best bets of the weekend are selected after 10,000 simulations of every game of Round 5.

Richmond (+11.5) line bet against Sydney - $1.90
Geelong vs West Coast Total Points Over 161.5 - $1.80
Collingwood to defeat St Kilda - $1.50

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.

Todd Davey

Todd Davey is a seasoned journalist and passionate sports fan with a strong interest in the AFL, NBA, and NRL. He has amassed valuable experience through his roles at The Canberra Times, Buddybet, Bets.com.au, and HorseBetting.com.au. With a commitment to delivering trustworthy and current information, Todd is a highly regarded source in Australia for engaging sports content and insightful analysis.