Is Collingwood the Best Team in the AFL?
Mar 27, 2023, 5:18AM
Collingwood is Stats Insider's most likely team to win the 2023 AFL premiership.
According to Stats Insider's AFL predictive model, as of Round 3, the Magpies have a 19.3% chance of winning this year's premiership.
Collingwood went to the top of our 2023 AFL futures model after a 135-64 win over Port Adelaide on Saturday afternoon, backing up its strong victory over reigning premier Geelong in Round 1.
Betfair agrees with our AFL premiership model and currently has Collingwood as the favourites to win the 2023 flag.
Conversely, Geelong has dropped to fourth place in our premiership probabilities following a Round 2 loss to Carlton on Thursday night.
While the opening two losses could be cause for concern for Cats fans, Stats Insider's AFL expert says Geelong's AFL strength of schedule gives the reigning premiers a great opportunity to right the ship.
"While a 0-2 start isn't an ideal way to kick off the premiership defence, the next three weeks does look significantly easier for the Cats," he explained.
"Geelong play back-to-back games against winless teams. First, the Suns in Queensland and then the Hawks on Easter Monday, before playing West Coast as part of Gather Round.
"There's a strong possibility Geelong could be 3-2 at the end of Round 5."
READ: Which Teams Can Force Their Way Into the 2023 AFL Finals?
2023 AFL Premiership Probabilities
| Team | Winning Probability |
| Collingwood Magpies | 19.3% |
| Melbourne Demons | 13.7% |
| Richmond Tigers | 13.3% |
| Geelong Cats | 11.5% |
| Sydney Swans | 11.1% |
| Carlton Blues | 8.8% |
| Port Adelaide Power | 6.7% |
| Brisbane Lions | 6.1% |
All probabilities are correct at the time of publishing.
Hawthorn Most Probable to Have the Most Losses of 2023
Hawthorn is the most likely team to have the most losses across the 2023 AFL season.
Following a 59-point loss to Essendon in Round 1, Hawthorn lost 118-37 against Sydney on Sunday, anchoring them to the bottom of the AFL ladder.
Hawthorn has a 26.3% chance of having the most losses across the 2023 AFL season, with Betfair moving them into outright favouritism.
Our AFL futures predictor has West Coast as the second-most likely team to have the most losses at 23.6%, while Gold Coast is at 15.5% and North Melbourne is at 12.5%, rounding out the four most likely teams.
MORE: 2023 AFL Schedule Difficulty
The next two weeks do not get any easier for the Hawks according to our AFL predictive model.
Hawthorn faces North Melbourne on Saturday in a game our model gives North Melbourne a 61% chance of winning, before facing the Cats on Easter Monday.
(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
