Did Round 1 Tell Us More About Port Adelaide or Brisbane?

Round 1 of the 2023 AFL season was packed with tight pre-match predictions and difficult match-ups.

The Stats Insider predictive model gave the Power a 51% probability of claiming victory compared to the Lions’ 49% in their game on Saturday.

Similarly, Betfair’s line was set at +3.5 in the Lions’ favour, highlighting just how close this game perhaps should have been. But after half-time, where the visitors held a two-goal lead, the Power took over and ran out 54-point winners.

This has seen Port Adelaide rise to a 75.7% chance of making the AFL finals in our futures simulations, up by 15% on our pre-season predictions. 

But how much should we really read into this result? Is it time for Lions fans to start panicking, Power fans to start celebrating, or a one-off?

MORE: 2023 AFL Schedule Difficulty

Port's Powerful Midfield Mix

Port Adelaide’s strongest area in its Round 1 encounter was by far its midfield. Led by new recruit Jason Horne-Francis, Zak Butters, and Ollie Wines, the side dominated the third quarter with an eight-goal showing.

The Power took control in and under, winning the contested possession count by 34 and the clearances by nine. Horne-Francis was the largest contributor, recording 11 disposals, five inside 50s and three clearances in that term.

This was in spite of the Power missing their second-best midfielder according to our player ratings, Travis Boak. Boak's inclusion could come as soon as this Saturday, further boosting their on-ball stocks.

Facing two of the best rated midfielders in the league in 2020 Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale (fifth overall) and Hugh McCluggage (29th) seemed to prove no issue. The pair combined for 33 disposals and eight clearances, with McCluggage’s 13 disposals being his lowest return since he registered 14 the last time he met the Power.

Neale was kept well below his career average of 18 contested possessions (rated in our Player DNA insights as the top 86.7% for the statistic in the AFL), with just 11 to his name on the day. New recruit Josh Dunkley also managed only 19 disposals, with 16 of those being handballs for only 29 metres gained.

Much of the under-performance of these key players can be found in the third quarter. Neale managed five disposals, Dunkley four, and McCluggage none at all.

The Power also over-performed on the offensive.

They had four multiple goal kickers, with Todd Marshall (four), Charlie Dixon, Lachie Jones and Junior Rioli (all three) having a big impact.

This weekend will be another big test for Port Adelaide, coming up against Collingwood fresh off a 25-point win against Geelong on Friday night.

If the Power can make it two wins in a row to start the season, confidence will grow that they're capable of being a contender in 2023. 

READ: Collingwood and Melbourne Rise Up Premiership Probabilities

Keep the Faith in Brisbane

It was a disappointing showing first up from the Lions in Round 1, but despite the result, the numbers are still backing Brisbane. So don’t panic yet Lions supporters - our model suggests the weekend could just be an anomaly.

Brisbane’s next match comes against Melbourne, which had a big win over the Western Bulldogs, coming out victors by 50 points. But just like the last time these two met in the 2022 semi-finals, our simulations predict that the Lions will bounce back.

With a return to the Gabba for their first home game of the season, our simulations currently have the Lions at a 54% winning probability, despite Betfair currently having them as the betting outsiders.

Struggling in key contested areas, coach Chris Fagan will have to be aware of the potential return of Demons tough nut Jack Viney, who is likely to rejoin the side after battling with a knee injury. Viney's inclusion is just another headache for Fagan, who already has to plan for Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca, rated as the first and third best players in the AFL according to the Stats Insider AFL player ratings.

The superstar duo were too much for the Dogs to handle last week, combining for 29 contested possessions and 16 clearances. The Lions will need to lift through the middle if they hope to avoid starting this season 0-2.

Working in Fagan’s favour however is the possible return of former skipper Dayne Zorko. The 34-year-old had nearly fully recovered from a hamstring injury sustained during the pre-season, but the Lions opted to play it safe.

Having moved into the backline after spending the majority of his career as a midfielder, Zorko will be essential to Brisbane’s ball movement from half-back. Daniel Rich was one of the side’s most important against Port Adelaide, and with Keidean Coleman possibly missing due to a head clash, Zorko will be even more important.

Should the Lions go down in this encounter, then warning bells may start to ring. With matches against the Western Bulldogs (away) and Collingwood (home) to follow, their first month is rated as one of the hardest in the AFL.

While the Lions’ premiership chances have now dropped down to 5.9% with our 2023 AFL futures model, their finals odds still sit at a steady 61.8%. 

The next three fixtures could prove vital to how the remainder of their season plays out.

(Photo by Mark Brake/Getty Images)