Essendon vs Sydney Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 20, 2023
Last updated: Jul 29, 2023, 9:20AM | Published: Jul 24, 2023, 12:35AM
Essendon plays Sydney in AFL Round 20 action at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, starting at 7:25pm AEST.
Stats Insider's free betting tips for Essendon vs Sydney, as well as the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips, are featured in this article.
More: AFL Expert Tips for Round 20, 2023
Who Will Win: Essendon vs Sydney
Based on detailed machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated Saturday's Essendon-Sydney AFL match 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model currently gives the Swans a 61% chance of defeating the Bombers at Marvel Stadium.
More: Essendon vs Sydney Match Centre
Essendon vs Sydney: Odds
The latest Betfair betting odds for Saturday's AFL clash at Marvel Stadium are listed here:
- Head to Head: Essendon $2.74, Sydney $1.57
- Line: Essendon +9.5 ($2.06), Sydney -9.5 ($1.89)
- Total (Over/Under 171.5 Points): Over $1.92, Under $1.92
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Betfair currently has Essendon at $2.74 and Sydney at $1.57.
The Bombers are 9.5-point underdogs against the Swans, with odds of $2.06 currently on offer at Betfair.
For the favourite Swans (-9.5) to cover the line, Betfair currently has odds of $1.89.
The Over/Under for total points scored is set at 171.5 with Betfair, which currently has odds for the Over at $1.92 and odds for the Under at $1.92.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Bombers (+9.5) have a 52% chance of covering the line, while the Over/Under total of 171.5 points has a 53% chance of staying Under.
More: Best Bets for Every AFL Game
Essendon vs Sydney: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Essendon at $2.74 with Betfair (2.8% edge)
- Line: Essendon +9.5 at $2.06 with Betfair (52% probability)
- Total Points: Under 171.5 at $1.92 with Betfair (53% probability)
These Essendon vs Sydney best bets are based on complex modelling and wagering experience to help you place better bets with your chosen online bookie.
While the Swans have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Bombers to win is our preferred option because of the 2.8% edge identified when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Making use of the edges seen here at Stats Insider is crucial to being profitable in the long run.
More: AFL Betting Trends for Round 20
Essendon vs Sydney: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Essendon vs Sydney at Marvel Stadium on Saturday has Sydney winning 88-80.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
For more information, click or tap See Matchup.
Stats Insider has full coverage of Essendon vs Sydney on Saturday, including pre-match predictions, expert tips, and live scores.
Essendon vs Sydney: Goal Scorers
Are you looking for Essendon vs Sydney goalscorer tips? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Sydney's Tom Papley is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Essendon vs Sydney.
Papley has a 6.9% chance of kicking the first goal at Marvel Stadium, while the Swans star has an 86.3% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.
Scroll down for our complete list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Scorer Tips
Essendon
- Peter Wright: 6.5% probability
- Kyle Langford: 5.9% probability
- Jye Menzie: 4.8% probability
- Matt Guelfi: 4.0% probability
- Archie Perkins: 3.1% probability
Sydney
- Tom Papley: 6.9% probability
- Lance Franklin: 6.7% probability
- Isaac Heeney: 5.9% probability
- Logan McDonald: 4.9% probability
- Joel Amartey: 3.6% probability
Anytime Goal Kicker Tips
Essendon
- Peter Wright: 85.9% probability
- Kyle Langford: 81.0% probability
- Jye Menzie: 73.9% probability
- Matt Guelfi: 68.5% probability
- Archie Perkins: 61.3% probability
Sydney
- Tom Papley: 86.3% probability
- Lance Franklin: 86.3% probability
- Isaac Heeney: 83.0% probability
- Logan McDonald: 73.4% probability
- Joel Amartey: 65.0% probability
Remember, our model updates regularly, so bookmark this page for the latest betting analysis before the Essendon vs Sydney game at Marvel Stadium.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets for the best tips on every AFL match, as well as a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.
More: AFL Coach Pressure Gauge 2023
Essendon vs Sydney: Preview
The AFL Round 20 clash between the Bombers and Swans at Marvel Stadium is scheduled to begin at 7:25pm AEST on Saturday.
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST) unless otherwise stated.
Our predictions for Essendon vs Sydney have been made thanks to 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, carefully curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are trustworthy and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you choose to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's vital to gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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