Hawthorn vs Carlton Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 16, 2023
Last updated: Jul 1, 2023, 1:55PM | Published: Jun 25, 2023, 10:35AM
Hawthorn takes on the favoured Carlton in AFL Round 16 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday, beginning at 1:10pm AEST.
Stats Insider's best betting tips for Hawthorn vs Carlton, as well as the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips, are detailed below.
More: AFL Expert Tips for Round 16, 2023
Who Will Win: Hawthorn vs Carlton
Based on advanced computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated Sunday's Hawthorn-Carlton AFL match 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model currently gives the Blues a 68% chance of beating the Hawks at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
More: Hawthorn vs Carlton Match Centre
Hawthorn vs Carlton: Odds
The current Betfair betting odds for Sunday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are shown below:
- Head to Head: Hawthorn $3.50, Carlton $1.39
- Line: Hawthorn +18.5 ($2.02), Carlton -18.5 ($1.80)
- Total (Over/Under 163.5 Points): Over $1.88, Under $1.88
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Betfair currently has Hawthorn at $3.50 and Carlton at $1.39.
The Hawks are 18.5-point underdogs against the Blues, with odds of $2.02 currently on offer at Betfair.
For the favourite Blues (-18.5) to cover the line, Betfair currently has odds of $1.80.
The Over/Under for total points scored sits at 163.5 with Betfair, which currently has odds for the Over at $1.88 and odds for the Under at $1.88.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Hawks (+18.5) have a 58% chance of covering the line, while the 163.5-point Over/Under has a 54% chance of staying Under.
More: Live Win Probabilities for All Sports
Hawthorn vs Carlton: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Hawthorn at $3.50 with Betfair (3.3% edge)
- Line: Hawthorn +18.5 at $2.02 with Betfair (58% probability) 🔥
- Total Points: Under 163.5 at $1.88 with Betfair (54% probability)
When you see a 🔥, you know you've found one of our best tips of the day across any sport.
Today's Hawthorn vs Carlton best bets are based on market-leading modelling and wagering intelligence to help you place smarter bets with your chosen online bookie.
While the Blues have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Hawks to win is our preferred option because of the 3.3% edge found when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Making use of the edges seen on Stats Insider is pivotal to being a profitable sports bettor in the long run.
More: AFL Betting Trends for Round 16
Hawthorn vs Carlton: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Hawthorn vs Carlton at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday has Carlton winning 86-74.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
For more information, click or tap See Matchup.
Stats Insider has full coverage of Hawthorn vs Carlton on Sunday, including pre-match predictions, expert tips, and live win probabilities.
Hawthorn vs Carlton: Goal Scorers
Are you looking for Hawthorn vs Carlton goalscorer tips? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Carlton's Charlie Curnow is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Hawthorn vs Carlton.
Curnow has a 9.8% chance of kicking the first goal at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the Blues star has a 94.5% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.
Scroll down for our complete list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Kicker Tips
Hawthorn
- Mitch Lewis: 6.5% probability
- Luke Breust: 5.8% probability
- Fergus Greene: 4.5% probability
- Chad Wingard: 4.4% probability
- Dylan Moore: 3.7% probability
Carlton
- Charlie Curnow: 9.8% probability
- Harry McKay: 8.4% probability
- Matthew Owies: 5.5% probability
- Jack Martin: 5.0% probability
- Jack Silvagni: 3.5% probability
Anytime Goal Scorer Tips
Hawthorn
- Mitch Lewis: 85.0% probability
- Luke Breust: 80.4% probability
- Fergus Greene: 72.4% probability
- Chad Wingard: 72.0% probability
- Dylan Moore: 65.1% probability
Carlton
- Charlie Curnow: 94.5% probability
- Harry McKay: 91.7% probability
- Matthew Owies: 78.5% probability
- Jack Martin: 77.3% probability
- Jack Silvagni: 61.9% probability
Our model updates frequently, so keep checking this page for the latest betting tips before the Hawthorn vs Carlton match at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
As always, check out Stats Insider's Best Bets for betting tips for every AFL match, as well as a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.
More: AFL Coach Pressure Gauge 2023
Hawthorn vs Carlton: Preview
The AFL Round 16 clash between the Hawks and Blues at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to start at 1:10pm AEST on Sunday.
- Teams: Hawthorn vs Carlton
- Date: Sunday 2 July 2023
- Time: 1:10pm AEST
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST) unless otherwise stated.
Our predictions for Hawthorn vs Carlton have been made after running 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of skilled data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.
If you decide to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's vital that you gamble responsibly and keep track of your money. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
More on the AFL
Stats Insider is your home for betting on the AFL, with the latest AFL betting news, tips for every AFL game, and futures odds for the AFL.
