How to Find an Edge Throughout the 2023 AFL Season

The 2023 AFL season is almost here.

After a busy off-season where a number of the contenders strengthened their lists, finding an edge in the betting market is harder than ever.

Stats Insider and Betfair have teamed up to take a deep dive into the upcoming season, including which players to watch, statistical analysis, and specific betting strategies for each club.

READ: What Did We Learn From the 2023 AFL Pre-Season?

Are Richmond Back in the Premiership Frame?

After a strong off-season, Richmond is poised to compete for a top-four berth in 2023.

The Tigers won 11 of their games after Round 6 last year and could have finished even higher had they not suffered narrow defeats to Geelong, Sydney, and Brisbane. 

After recruiting Tim Tarranto and Jacob Hopper from the Giants, Betfair's team of experts is tipping a return to the top four for the Tigers.

Betfair's assessment is in line with Stats Insider's AFL futures model, which gives Richmond a 42.8% probability of making the top four, the second most likely team to secure the double chance.

Will Carlton Be Motivated by Round 23 Heartbreak?

Will Carlton’s pain be a driver heading into the 2023 AFL season? 

The Blues spent the entire 2022 season in the top eight, only to fall out in the last 90 seconds of their Round 23 clash with Collingwood.

While they will be tested early with games against Richmond and Geelong to open the season, Carlton's 2023 fixture is the easiest in the AFL according Stats Insider's AFL schedule difficulty analysis.

Can Sydney Defy History?

Since 1995, only one team has lost a Grand Final by more than 40 points and come back to finish in the top four the following season. That team was Sydney in 2015 who had been belted by the Hawks the year before.

Stats Insider's AFL futures model suggests it will be tough for the Swans, with Sydney the eighth most likely team to make the top four at a 28.7% probability.

If the pre-season is any indication, the Swans will be competitive again in 2023. Whether or not they can emulate last year's Grand Final appearance remains to be seen.

How about the boot on him! Braeden launches one off the left boot. pic.twitter.com/r02BV5Gvcm

— Sydney Swans (@sydneyswans) March 3, 2023

MORE: 2023 AFL Futures

Can Collingwood Compete for Top 4?

How good can Collingwood be in 2023? 

The Pies had a better-than-expected season last year, with their ability to win close games a notable feature of their campaign. They went 11-1 in the home-and-away season in matches decided by two goals or less. In the end that was enough for them to finish fourth.

Had the Pies have gone 7-4 in those matches they would have missed the finals.

Stats Insider's AFL futures model currently has a 27% probability for Collingwood to make the top four, placing them ninth in our rankings.

Savvy punters can find better odds on AFL markets at Betfair, Australia's only peer-to-peer betting exchange, compared to traditional bookmakers.

Click here to read Betfair's full AFL 2023 season preview for all 18 teams.