Melbourne vs GWS Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 16, 2023
Last updated: Jul 1, 2023, 1:55PM | Published: Jun 25, 2023, 10:35AM
Melbourne plays GWS in AFL Round 16 action at TIO Stadium on Sunday, commencing at 3:20pm AEST.
Stats Insider's best betting tips for Melbourne vs GWS, plus the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips, are detailed in this article.
More: AFL Expert Tips for Round 16, 2023
Who Will Win: Melbourne vs GWS
Based on trusted computer power and data, Stats Insider has simulated Sunday's Melbourne-GWS AFL match 10,000 times.
Our independent predictive analytics model gives the Demons a 64% chance of winning against the Giants in Round 16 of the 2023 AFL season.
More: Melbourne vs GWS Match Centre
Melbourne vs GWS: Odds
The latest Betfair betting odds for Sunday's AFL clash at TIO Stadium are listed below:
- Head to Head: Melbourne $1.42, GWS $3.35
- Line: Melbourne -16.5 ($1.88), GWS +16.5 ($2.04)
- Total (Over/Under 160.5 Points): Over $2.00, Under $1.80
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Betfair currently has Melbourne at $1.42 and GWS at $3.35.
The Demons are 16.5-point favourites against the Giants, with odds of $1.88 currently available at Betfair.
For the underdog Giants (+16.5) to cover the line, Betfair currently has odds of $2.04.
The Over/Under for total points scored sits at 160.5 with Betfair, which currently has odds for the Over at $2.00 and odds for the Under at $1.80.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Giants (+16.5) have a 59% chance of covering the line, while the Over/Under total of 160.5 points has a 55% chance of staying Under.
More: Live Win Probabilities for All Sports
Melbourne vs GWS: Best Bets
- Head to Head: GWS at $3.35 with Betfair (6.2% edge) 🔥
- Line: GWS +16.5 at $2.04 with Betfair (59% probability) 🔥
- Total Points: Under 160.5 at $1.80 with Betfair (55% probability)
When you see a 🔥, that means you've found one of our best tips for today across all sports.
Our Melbourne vs GWS best bets are based on complex simulations and wagering experience to bring you the best possible advice 24/7/365.
While the Demons have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Giants to win is our preferred option due to the 6.2% edge found when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently available.
Making use of the edges published here at Stats Insider is one of the keys to being profitable in the long run.
More: AFL Betting Trends for Round 16
Melbourne vs GWS: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Melbourne vs GWS at TIO Stadium this Sunday has Melbourne prevailing 83-74.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
For more information, click or tap See Matchup.
Stats Insider has full betting coverage of Melbourne vs GWS on Sunday, including pre-match predictions, free betting tips, and live win probabilities.
Melbourne vs GWS: Goal Scorers
Searching for Melbourne vs GWS goal kicker tips? The data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Melbourne's Bayley Fritsch is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Melbourne vs GWS.
Fritsch has a 7.8% chance of kicking the first goal at TIO Stadium, while the Demons star has an 85.2% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.
Scroll down for our full list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Kicker Tips
Melbourne
- Bayley Fritsch: 7.8% probability
- Ben Brown: 7.6% probability
- Kysaiah Pickett: 7.2% probability
- Christian Petracca: 4.6% probability
- Kade Chandler: 3.9% probability
GWS
- Toby Greene: 7.1% probability
- Jesse Hogan: 5.4% probability
- Jake Riccardi: 4.4% probability
- Daniel Lloyd: 2.9% probability
- Toby Bedford: 2.8% probability
Anytime Goal Kicker Tips
Melbourne
- Ben Brown: 86.3% probability
- Kysaiah Pickett: 86.0% probability
- Bayley Fritsch: 85.2% probability
- Christian Petracca: 72.2% probability
- Kade Chandler: 62.4% probability
GWS
- Toby Greene: 84.5% probability
- Jesse Hogan: 77.2% probability
- Jake Riccardi: 69.7% probability
- Daniel Lloyd: 51.1% probability
- Toby Bedford: 50.8% probability
Remember, our model updates regularly, so refresh this article for the latest betting tips before the Melbourne vs GWS match at TIO Stadium.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets for the best tips for every AFL match, plus a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.
More: AFL Player Ratings 2023
Melbourne vs GWS: Preview
The AFL Round 16 clash between the Demons and Giants at TIO Stadium is scheduled to commence at 3:20pm AEST on Sunday.
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST) unless otherwise noted.
Our predictions for Melbourne vs GWS are the result of 10,000 data-driven simulations of the game, carefully curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, so that you can make informed decisions with confidence.
If you choose to use our predictions for betting purposes, it's important that you gamble responsibly and know when to stop. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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