Melbourne vs Hawthorn Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 23, 2023
Last updated: Aug 19, 2023, 1:55PM | Published: Aug 13, 2023, 2:02PM
Melbourne plays Hawthorn in AFL Round 23 action at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday, starting at 3:20pm AEST.
Stats Insider's free betting tips for Melbourne vs Hawthorn, as well as the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips, are featured in this article.
More: AFL Expert Tips for Round 23, 2023
Who Will Win: Melbourne vs Hawthorn
Based on state-of-the-art machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated Sunday's Melbourne-Hawthorn AFL match 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model currently gives the Demons a 78% chance of winning against the Hawks in Round 23 of the 2023 AFL season.
More: Melbourne vs Hawthorn Match Centre
Melbourne vs Hawthorn: Odds
The current Betfair betting odds for Sunday's AFL clash at the Melbourne Cricket Ground are listed here:
- Head to Head: Melbourne $1.25, Hawthorn $4.80
- Line: Melbourne -26.5 ($1.87), Hawthorn +26.5 ($1.91)
- Total (Over/Under 167.5 Points): Over $1.89, Under $1.89
Odds are correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Betfair currently has Melbourne at $1.25 and Hawthorn at $4.80.
The Demons are listed as 26.5-point favourites against the Hawks, with odds of $1.87 currently on offer at Betfair.
For the underdog Hawks (+26.5) to cover the line, Betfair currently has odds of $1.91.
The Over/Under for Melbourne vs Hawthorn is set at 167.5 with Betfair, which currently has odds for the Over at $1.89 and odds for the Under at $1.89.
According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the Hawks (+26.5) have a 58% chance of covering the line, while the Over/Under total of 167.5 points is considered an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
More: Predictions for Every AFL Match
Melbourne vs Hawthorn: Betting Tips
- Head to Head: Hawthorn at $4.80 with Betfair (1.7% edge)
- Line: Hawthorn +26.5 at $1.91 with Betfair (58% probability) 🔥
- Total Points: Under 167.5 at $1.89 with Betfair (50% probability)
When you see a 🔥, you know it's one of Stats Insider's best bets for today across all sports.
Our Melbourne vs Hawthorn betting tips are based on detailed modelling and wagering intelligence to bring you the best possible advice every time.
While the Demons have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Hawks to win is our recommended option due to the 1.7% edge identified when comparing our data-led probabilities to the odds currently on offer.
Taking advantage of the edges published on Stats Insider is one of the keys to being a profitable punter in the long run.
More: AFL Betting Trends for Round 23
Melbourne vs Hawthorn: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Melbourne vs Hawthorn at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday has Melbourne winning 93-73.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
For more information, click or tap See Matchup.
Stats Insider has full coverage of Melbourne vs Hawthorn on Sunday, including pre-match predictions, free tips, and live win probabilities.
Melbourne vs Hawthorn: Goal Scorers
Searching for Melbourne vs Hawthorn goalscorer tips? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Melbourne's Kysaiah Pickett is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Melbourne vs Hawthorn.
Pickett has an 8.6% chance of kicking the first goal at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, while the Demons star has a 93.0% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the match.
Scroll down for our full list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Kicker Tips
Melbourne
- Kysaiah Pickett: 8.6% probability
- Jake Melksham: 6.6% probability
- Christian Petracca: 6.6% probability
- Jacob van Rooyen: 5.3% probability
- Kade Chandler: 4.7% probability
Hawthorn
- Luke Breust: 7.1% probability
- Jacob Koschitzke: 4.6% probability
- Dylan Moore: 3.3% probability
- Max Ramsden: 3.0% probability
- Connor Macdonald: 2.7% probability
Anytime Goal Scorer Tips
Melbourne
- Kysaiah Pickett: 93.0% probability
- Jake Melksham: 85.5% probability
- Christian Petracca: 84.6% probability
- Jacob van Rooyen: 77.6% probability
- Kade Chandler: 72.7% probability
Hawthorn
- Luke Breust: 87.9% probability
- Jacob Koschitzke: 72.9% probability
- Dylan Moore: 62.0% probability
- Max Ramsden: 56.7% probability
- Connor Macdonald: 53.5% probability
Remember, our model updates regularly, so keep checking this article for the latest betting tips before the Melbourne vs Hawthorn match at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.
As always, see Stats Insider's Best Bets to get the best tips for every AFL match, as well as a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.
More: AFL Player Ratings 2023
Melbourne vs Hawthorn: Preview
The AFL Round 23 clash between the Demons and Hawks at the Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 3:20pm AEST on Sunday.
- Teams: Melbourne vs Hawthorn
- Date: Sunday 20 August 2023
- Time: 3:20pm AEST
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
All dates and times mentioned in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST) unless otherwise stated.
Our predictions for Melbourne vs Hawthorn are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, all curated by our team of expert data scientists and analysts. We use the latest in predictive analytics technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the knowledge you need to make informed decisions with confidence.
If you decide to use our AFL predictions for betting purposes, it's vital that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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