Why the Roosters Are Our 2023 NRL Premiership Favourites

After four rounds of the 2023 NRL season, the Sydney Roosters are sitting atop our NRL premiership futures simulations. 

Our predictive model suggests that the Roosters have a 16.8% chance of winning the grand final in 2023, the most of any team.

But looking at the season so far at the surface level, this prediction may appear confusing. 

Four teams sit above the Roosters currently, including the Brisbane Broncos, who remain the only undefeated side after a month of action.

These opening fixtures also included a shock loss to newcomers the Dolphins, who themselves are proving to be a potential threat in finals football.

So after enjoying a bye this week, will it continue to be onwards and upwards for the Roosters?

Stats Insider's 2023 NRL futures model certainly thinks so.

MORE: 2023 NRL Futures

The Roosters' Impressive Victories

Round 3's win in a fierce rivalry match against the Rabbitohs seems to have gotten the Roosters back on the right track. Directly after the match, the Tricolours jumped to the top of our 2023 NRL premiership probabilities, at a strong 18% chance.

The Roosters rose to the top of our #NRL premiership probabilities after defeating Souths on Friday.

— Stats Insider (@StatsInsider) March 21, 2023

While that has dropped slightly as other contenders continued to win games in Round 4, the victory has kept the Roosters looking quite favourable in our model.

The Rabbitohs are also highly rated in our NRL futures probabilities, currently ranked third with a 15.1% chance. They are also rated as a 49.8% chance to make the top four, and a 78.4% chance to make finals. 

Another team our NRL futures model favours is Cronulla after their crushing 40-8 win over St George.

The Sharks are our model's most likely team to qualify for the 2023 NRL finals.

The Tricolours' other win has come over the New Zealand Warriors, who have been greatly exceeding pundit's expectations. 

The Warriors, who we rate as a 1% chance to win the 2023 NRL premiership with our futures model, are currently sitting fourth after upsetting the Cowboys in Round 3 and carrying their form into a tight win over the Bulldogs.

The Warriors were given just a 30% pre-match chance of defeating the Cowboys, who have been performing well in our futures predictions. The Cowboys, who are still ranked fifth in our premiership futures, couldn't stop the Warriors from getting over the line five times.

If the Warriors can pull off a similar upset this week away from home over the Sharks, we may be looking back on this Roosters victory quite favourably in the rounds to come.

READ: Can the Broncos Win the 2023 NRL Premiership?

Who Do the Roosters Play Next?

While the Roosters have certainly earned their spot as premiership contenders, they'll have plenty of challenges still to overcome if they want a chance at glory. Stats Insider's 2023 NRL schedule difficulty rates the Roosters as having the seventh hardest run in the NRL, with a number of important matches to come in the next few rounds.

Their Round 7 clash with Cronulla could rate as one of their most dangerous. The Sharks go into this week's match with the Warriors as heavy favourites. Hosting the visitors from across the ditch, our simulations suggest a 71% chance of victory for the boys from The Shire.

The Warriors will have to watch out for current season-leading try scorer William Kennedy, who we predict has a 42.2% chance of scoring in this match-up.

Should the Sharks win this favoured match-up, they'll get to enjoy a week off while riding high into the clash with the Roosters. Meanwhile, the Roosters will have to square off with the Eels at home before travelling to Melbourne to face the Storm.

Our model does favour the Roosters this week, in a tight one against last year's grand finalists. The simulations predict a 61% chance of victory at Allianz Stadium.

The Eels are coming off a stunning one-point victory in the Grand Final rematch against the Panthers, as Mitch Moses kicked truly to secure a golden-point field goal. It was the bounce-back they had been looking for, after previously dropping three games straight to the Storm, Sharks, and Sea Eagles.

After the past three weeks though, the Roosters should be backing themselves in to blunt their opposition's momentum before it begins.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)